:Product: 0508RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1031 km/s at 08/0629Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/2032Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15854 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 May, 11 May). III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 May 149 Predicted 09 May-11 May 150/150/140 90 Day Mean 08 May 166 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 017/025-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/35 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 70/50/45