:Product: 0509RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (10 May, 11 May) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (12 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 09/0323Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 09/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16117 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 May, 11 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 May). III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May Class M 40/40/10 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 May 136 Predicted 10 May-12 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 09 May 166 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 011/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 010/012-010/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/20 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/50/25