:Product: 0510RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (11 May) and likely to be low on days two and three (12 May, 13 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 10/1225Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 09/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1326 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (11 May, 13 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 May). III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May Class M 40/05/05 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 May 134 Predicted 11 May-13 May 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 10 May 165 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 010/012-007/008-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/40 Minor Storm 15/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/25/50