:Product: 0511RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 10/2147Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/1827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 836 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (12 May, 14 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (13 May). III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 May 126 Predicted 12 May-14 May 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 11 May 165 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 007/008-010/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/20 Minor Storm 05/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/50/25