:Product: 0512RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (13 May) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (14 May, 15 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 11/2157Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 381 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (13 May, 15 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 May). III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May Class M 15/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 May 116 Predicted 13 May-15 May 116/114/116 90 Day Mean 12 May 165 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 014/ 013 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 010/012-008/010-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/30 Minor Storm 15/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/25/40