:Product: 0513RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (14 May) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (15 May, 16 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 13/0828Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 13/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 13/1832Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 13/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 705 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 May), quiet to active levels on day two (15 May) and quiet levels on day three (16 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (14 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 May). III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May Class M 15/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 75/10/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 May 117 Predicted 14 May-16 May 116/116/116 90 Day Mean 13 May 164 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 007/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 008/003-011/004-007/003 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/10 Minor Storm 05/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/40/20