:Product: 0514RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 14/0740Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/1651Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 13/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 601 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 May, 17 May) and quiet levels on day two (16 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 May). III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May Class M 75/75/75 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 May 122 Predicted 15 May-17 May 116/116/118 90 Day Mean 14 May 164 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 009/ 009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 011/012-007/008-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/30 Minor Storm 10/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/20/40