:Product: 0522RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 647 km/s at 21/2112Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1928Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1643 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May). III. Event probabilities 23 May-25 May Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 May 120 Predicted 23 May-25 May 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 22 May 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 009/012-011/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/40