:Product: 0523RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 23/0855Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/1722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1506Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1707 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May). III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 May 122 Predicted 24 May-26 May 120/120/130 90 Day Mean 23 May 157 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 007/ 006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 011/012-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/40