:Product: 0525RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 25/0215Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 25/0648Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1038 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May). III. Event probabilities 26 May-28 May Class M 65/65/65 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 May 133 Predicted 26 May-28 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 25 May 155 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 009/008-008/008-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/40