:Product: 0529RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 837 km/s at 29/1956Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 29/0007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -24 nT at 29/0007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 581 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (30 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun). III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 May 145 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 138/135/135 90 Day Mean 29 May 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 017/ N60 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 040/069 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 029/032-018/022-017/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/40 Minor Storm 35/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 75/60/60