:Product: 0603RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jun 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 804 km/s at 03/0951Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 02/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 03/0013Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 03/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3366 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jun, 05 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun). III. Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jun 135 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 038/ 069 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 040/059 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 014/018-018/020-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 60/60/50