:Product: 0705RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 05 2220 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 05/1537Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 05/2051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 05/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 354 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Jul, 07 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jul). III. Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Jul 117 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 115/115/113 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 140 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 011/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 009/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/10