:Product: 0709RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 08/2133Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1211 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul). III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul Class M 35/35/35 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jul 120 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 115/112/115 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 138 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 013/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 005/005-006/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/30