:Product: 0711RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 11/1257Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 11/1005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 11/0923Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2332 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (13 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Jul). III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jul 132 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 137 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 011/012-011/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/30 Minor Storm 15/30/10 Major-severe storm 01/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 45/65/40