:Product: 0712RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 12/2059Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 12/0907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 435 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul). III. Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul Class M 55/55/55 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Jul 139 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 137 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 018/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 012/015-010/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/15 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/40/25