:Product: 0713RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 13/0749Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/2345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 13/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 596 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul). III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jul 128 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 125/128/130 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 016/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/012-009/010-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 45/25/25