:Product: 0714RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 13/2149Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1234 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul). III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Jul 128 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 128/128/125 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 017/ 015 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 012/015-009/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/15/15 Minor Storm 25/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/25/20