:Product: 0716RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 15/2224Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/1704Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1758Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4844 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jul). III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul Class M 60/60/60 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jul 152 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 125/128/130 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 017/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 009/008-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/10