:Product: 0717RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 789 km/s at 17/1436Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6593 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul). III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jul 156 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 158/155/150 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 013/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 011/015-010/010-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/25/25