:Product: 0718RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 18/0647Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10272 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul). III. Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jul 156 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 014/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010/010-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/10/10