:Product: 0719RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jul 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 19/0042Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0449Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11582 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul). III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jul 153 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 150/148/145 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10