:Product: 0829RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 29/0500Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0227Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 29/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 368 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Aug), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (31 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Sep). III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep Class M 75/75/75 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/15/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Aug 222 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 225/230/220 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 140 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 006/005-007/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/30/25