:Product: 0830RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 30/0950Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/0802Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 30/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Aug, 01 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (02 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Aug), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (01 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Sep). III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep Class M 75/75/75 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/15/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Aug 317 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 220/215/210 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 142 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 007/010-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 30/25/20