:Product: 0902RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 695 km/s at 02/0801Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 01/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -23 nT at 01/2359Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 01/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 291 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep). III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep Class M 55/55/55 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Sep 187 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 185/185/182 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 009/ 016 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 028/046 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 018/024-007/008-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/35 Minor Storm 30/05/15 Major-severe storm 15/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/25/50