:Product: 0910RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 10/0829Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 991 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep). III. Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep Class M 25/35/35 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Sep 119 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 015/ 018 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 010/012-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/20