:Product: 0911RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 11/0327Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/0436Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 790 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Sep), quiet levels on day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Sep). III. Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Sep 115 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 118/120/125 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 012/ 013 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 011/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 007/008-006/005-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/30 Minor Storm 05/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/40