:Product: 0912RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 12/0835Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/0221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0938Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1080 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Sep), unsettled to active levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Sep). III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Sep 114 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 115/120/115 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 007/008-015/018-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/35 Minor Storm 05/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/50/50