:Product: 0913RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 12/2219Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1132 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep). III. Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Sep 118 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 016/020-013/015-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 65/50/50