:Product: 0917RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 872 km/s at 17/0843Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0704Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4335 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep). III. Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep Class M 35/35/35 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Sep 147 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 148/150/150 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 009/010-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/20/20