:Product: 0919RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 18/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5020 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (22 Sep). III. Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep Class M 35/35/35 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Sep 160 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 005/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 006/005-012/015-019/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/40 Minor Storm 01/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/40/60