:Product: 0920RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 19/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4444 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Sep), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (22 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Sep). III. Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Sep 166 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 007/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 015/018-019/024-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/20 Minor Storm 10/25/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/60/25