:Product: 0921RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 21/0844Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/1304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4819 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (24 Sep). III. Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Sep 176 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 019/024-009/012-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/10 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 60/25/20