:Product: 0922RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 22/1948Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 22/1110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 22/1054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1547 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (25 Sep). III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep Class M 35/35/35 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Sep 172 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 172/168/165 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 014/015-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/30/20