:Product: 0928RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 28/1512Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 28/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 445 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (01 Oct). III. Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Sep 171 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 013/014-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/10 Minor Storm 10/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 40/35/20