:Product: 0929RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 29/0622Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 29/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 29/0701Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 336 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (02 Oct). III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Sep 186 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 013/015-009/012-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/20 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 60/45/30