:Product: 0930RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 744 km/s at 30/1921Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 30/1139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 30/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 413 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Oct). III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Sep 187 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 013/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 040/064 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 021/027-014/018-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/35 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/55/45