:Product: 1001RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 880 km/s at 01/1700Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/0159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2756 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Oct). III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Oct 184 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 043/075 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 032/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 021/028-015/018-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/40/40 Minor Storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/35/30 Major-severe storm 65/50/50