:Product: 1002RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 861 km/s at 02/1234Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/0433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/0352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3601 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct). III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Oct 167 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 025/050 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 036/051 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 018/025-015/018-014/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/30 Minor Storm 25/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 60/40/45