:Product: 1003RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1152 km/s at 02/2130Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7331 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (04 Oct, 06 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Oct). III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct Class M 60/55/55 Class X 15/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Oct 170 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 030/045 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 023/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 015/018-014/018-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/35 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 55/55/45