:Product: 1004RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 04/0734Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14337 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (05 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (07 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct). III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Oct 158 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 020/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 014/018-012/015-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/40 Minor Storm 15/10/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/10 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/05 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 55/45/75