:Product: 1005RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 829 km/s at 04/2133Z. Total IMF reached 55 nT at 04/2248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 04/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23594 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct). III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Oct 148 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 150/155/150 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 016/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 012/015-015/018-014/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/40 Minor Storm 10/30/25 Major-severe storm 01/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/10 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 45/75/65