:Product: 1006RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (09 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 05/2359Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17944 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct). III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct Class M 40/40/35 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Oct 133 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 017/021-015/018-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/20 Minor Storm 30/25/05 Major-severe storm 10/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 75/65/25