:Product: 1007RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (08 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 733 km/s at 07/0049Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10521 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (10 Oct). III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct Class M 35/30/30 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Oct 131 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 130/125/122 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 018/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 017/021-009/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/10 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 65/25/20