:Product: 1008RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (09 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 08/0154Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 07/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4951 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet levels on day two (10 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Oct). III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct Class M 10/25/25 Class X 01/05/05 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Oct 120 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 014/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 009/008-006/005-010/014 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/35 Minor Storm 05/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 30/20/25 Major-severe storm 25/20/50