:Product: 1009RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1124 km/s at 08/2325Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5051 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct). III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Oct 122 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 009/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 006/005-011/015-018/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/35/40 Minor Storm 01/15/25 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/50/65