:Product: 1011RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 11/0835Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 11/1822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/2037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2784 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (13 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Oct). III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Oct 131 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 018/025-015/018-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/45/30 Minor Storm 25/25/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 65/60/40