:Product: 1012RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 914 km/s at 12/0407Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 12/0244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/0057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1707 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct). III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Oct 143 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 024/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 015/018-007/008-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/15/20 Minor Storm 25/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/25/30