:Product: 1013RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 946 km/s at 12/2315Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4077 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct). III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Oct 141 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 018/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 011/012-008/012-017/022 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 10/15/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 45/45/65