:Product: 1014RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 15 1310 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 742 km/s at 14/0146Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/0019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5134 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Oct), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (16 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct). III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct Class M 55/55/55 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Oct 154 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 155/160/160 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 017/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/012-020/028-019/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/35 Minor Storm 15/40/25 Major-severe storm 01/20/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/10 Minor Storm 30/20/25 Major-severe storm 45/75/65